We are in our fourth year here at Casa La Punta Es in Puerto Escondido. Before that we had vacationed here several times. Up to this visit which started a month ago Sunday we had the same purr-fect weather day in and day out from October to the end of April. Sunny skies with highs in the mid 80′s and lows in the low 70′s! – spectacular and consistent weather!
In the last month we have been here we have had at least 10 – 12 inches of rain – some almost every day here. Half of that came in the last 24 hours. Now we are watching tropical storm Trudy about 75 miles off our southern shores moving slowly along heading to land here tonight – yikes!
Here is the 4 am update from the NHC
Tropical Storm Trudy
Last Updated 10/18/2014, 4:00:00 AM (Central Daylight Time (Mexico))
Location 16.2N 98.8W Movement E at 2 mph
Wind 95KPH Pressure: 999 MB
Microwave imagery and radar data from Acapulco suggest that Trudy is
intensifying. The cyclone has recently formed an inner core, and
the nascent central dense overcast (cdo) is quickly becoming better
defined. A 10 to 15 N mi eye feature within the CDO has also closed
off and become more circular within the past few hours as seen on
radar imagery. Dvorak intensity estimates are generally increasing,
and the initial intensity is raised to 50 kt, slightly above the
latest UW-CIMSS ADT CI value. Trudy is embedded in a very moist and
light-shear environment over 30 deg c waters, all of which favor
continued intensification. In fact, the SHIPS RI index indicates a
nearly 70 percent likelihood of a 30-kt increase in intensity
during the next 24 hours. The only inhibiting factor is the
cyclone’s proximity to land, which would end the current
intensification phase. Given the current trend, the NHC intensity
forecast is increased significantly over the previous one and is
much higher than all of the available intensity guidance. A major
caveat to the forecast is that the predicted intensity could be too
low should the cyclone remain offshore longer than anticipated.
Radar imagery shows that Trudy has been drifting slowly eastward,
with a rather uncertain initial motion estimate of 080/02. The
synoptic pattern suggests that Trudy should generally be steered
very slowly toward the northeast or east around the northern
periphery of a mid-level ridge located well to the southeast during
the next day or so. The NHC track forecast has been adjusted to the
east of the previous one and is farther east than the HWRF and GFS
ensemble mean on the eastern side of the guidance envelope, with
landfall predicted in roughly 12 hours.
Based on the revised track and intensity forecast, the government of
Mexico has issued a Hurricane Watch from east of Acapulco to Laguna
It is Worth emphasizing that the primary threat from this system is/will be the torrential rains, which will likely produce flash flooding and mud slides in portions of southern Mexico during the next few days, especially near areas of elevated terrain.
It should be noted that there was a full blown category 2 (2.5 really) here in Puerto in June of 2012 before we arrived here that year. Our friend Charlie came by the Casa and took photos and reported on the condition of things. Now I am Skype’ing with Charlie about conditions here as he is in the U.S.
Huge forest fires, earthquakes, tropical storms and hurricanes have been part of our adult lives – throughout. So we are sort of prepared for whatever Mother Nature is about to throw at us. Boldly written, each time is still a concern, even a fear. We are buttoning things down (three bungeed down plastic tarps cover the new scooter. Our vintage palapa has some small holes and loss of fronds from previous storms – so we cover our bed and have strategically placed a bucket or two.
Downstairs on the south side of the casa we have installed plastic bags over the screens and applied a tarp over the large window there. We had all this tested in the last 24 hours as well as more than 5 inches of rain – all a precursor to Trudy.
Yesterday we cancelled plans with Ron and Roxanne to try the one Puerto Chinese Restaurant near the HSBC bank in the middle of downtown due to the weather. Good decision because it was blustery and drenching during our cancelled arrival time.
It is not daylight yet (around 7 AM) and calm. We will work on still tighter preparation for Trudy throughout the day today and keep watch on satellite displays of what is going on out there beyond the beach and out at sea.
Seldom a dull moment – but if there is one to come today the hammock awaits. Otherwise the flashlights are readied and I have a Thoreau Reader hard copy in case the power goes off like it did last night for an hour. And the Kindle is charged and loaded with books. We will make it an interesting day in any case. Stay Tuned!